Kurdish Studies

ISSN: 2051-4883 | e-ISSN: 2051-4891
Email: editor@kurdishstudies.net

The Impact of Government Spending and Oil Revenue Fluctuations on Banking Credit in the Iraqi Economy

Marwah Jabbar Imran
Master student at Department of Financial and Banking Sciences, College of Administration and Economics, University of Babylon, Iraq,
Prof. Dr. Khalid Hussein Ali ALmarzoog
Professor at Department of Financial and Banking Sciences, College of Administration and Economics, University of Babylon, Iraq,
Dr. Ehab A. Mahmood
Assistant Professor at Department of Financial and Banking Sciences, College of Administration and Economics, University of Babylon, Iraq
Keywords: Government spending, oil revenues, and banking credit.

Abstract

The research aims to analyze government spending and its impact on banking credit through oil revenue fluctuations in the Iraqi economy for the period (2004 - 2021). The research problem lies in the weak performance of fiscal policy in addressing economic and financial fluctuations in the Iraqi economy, negatively affecting the banking activity in providing the necessary credit for financing developmental activities, salaries of employees in government agencies, and relying heavily on crude oil as the main source of income and gross domestic product. Crude oil revenues directly fluctuate with global oil prices, and in the event of revenue fluctuations, the government resorts to bank borrowing to finance its public expenses due to the lack of alternative sources. The researcher formulated a hypothesis stating that there is a positive relationship and impact between government spending and banking credit granted to economic sectors through an increase in oil revenues in the Iraqi economy. The researcher developed a standard model consisting of the independent variable represented by oil revenues and its effect on the dependent variable (banking credit) when government spending is an intermediary variable. The researcher reached the following conclusions: the results of testing oil revenues (independent variable) and government spending (intermediary variable) have a significant impact on the dependent variable (banking credit), and the tests (F, r, R²) demonstrated that the results were good and had a significant impact on banking credit, aligning with the reality of the Iraqi economy. Since oil revenues are the primary source of financing government spending, any decline in oil revenues will lead the government to resort to borrowing from banks as an alternative source to finance its ongoing expenses.

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