Changing Rainfall Patterns and Their Impact on Agricultural Sustainability: A Geographical Analysis of Indian Agricultural Regions

Abstract

Changing rainfall patterns are a significant geographical concern for agricultural sustainability due to the strong inter-linkages of the timing, amount and spatial distribution of monsoon rainfall with crop calendars, soil-water availability, groundwater recharge, rainfed productivity and rural livelihood stability in India. The present paper analyzes the impact of recent variability of rainfall on agricultural sustainability in India. The present paper has adopted a secondary-data, quantitative, longitudinal and spatially orientation research design. Evidence of rainfall has been taken from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) daily gridded rainfall data system and its official monsoon statements while agricultural data have been sourced from Agricultural Statistics at a Glance 2024. The present analysis uses regional southwest monsoon rainfall departures for 2020 to 2024; official all-India land-use and irrigation series for 2000-01 to 2022-23 and food grain yield series for 2005-06 to 2024-25. There are many statistical techniques such as descriptive statistics, coefficient of variation, rainfall-departure diagnostics, Mann-Kendall trend test, Senator slope estimator, correlation, and simple regression modelling. A constructed Agricultural Sustainability Index (ASI) composite of foodgrain yield, cropping intensity, irrigation coverage, gross irrigation intensity and yield-stability indicators. The findings indicate that between 2020 and 2024, East and Northeast India experienced deficit in the southwest monsoon rainfall for four out of the five years. In contrast, Central India and South Peninsula received surplus rainfall more often. Statistical tests conducted on agricultural indicators reveal a significant increase in total foodgrain yield, cropping intensity, net irrigation ratio and gross irrigation ratio.

 Nonetheless, the findings also indicate that the stability of national production is becoming increasingly reliant on irrigation expansion and technical buffers rather than rainfall. The analysis underlines that climate-resilient agricultural planning must graduate from all-India average annual rainfall to harnessing district-level rainfall variability. In addition, rainfall buffer at the irrigation command area level, sensitivity of major crops to vagaries of rainfall, estimate of the area affected by droughts and GIS-based vulnerability mapping must be used for effective agricultural adaptation policy.