Mathematical model for assessing energy cooperation between Russia and China in the global energy market

Abstract

Purpose: This article develops a mathematical and econometric framework to assess the impact of Russia–China energy cooperation on the global energy market. It aims to explore how bilateral collaboration affects market stability, energy flow redistribution, and global energy security.

Methodology: The study employs a linear trend model and a log-linear regression model to evaluate relationships between variables such as trade openness, foreign direct investment, economic growth, energy prices, and governance efficiency. It constructs a panel data econometric model using variables from the World Bank, the International Energy Agency (IEA), and national energy ministries to test three hypotheses about the systemic effects of bilateral cooperation. Findings: The analysis confirms a statistically significant and positive relationship between Russia–China energy cooperation and global energy market stabilization. The cooperation contributes to the redistribution of energy flows and increases energy dependence among specific countries. The model also highlights the role of state governance efficiency in mitigating potential risks. Originality: This study provides a novel mathematical and empirical model integrating geopolitical, economic, and institutional factors to assess the global implications of bilateral energy partnerships, with a special focus on the Russia–China nexus.