Forecasting Mortality Rate of Pakistan by Using Lee-Carter Model

Abstract

This research has been focused-on to forecasting the mortality rate of Pakistan population by using Lee-Carter Model (LCM). In order to accomplish this purpose, the mortality data of Pakistan for male and female from 2000-2016 are utilized. LCM parameters were estimated from the data of different age groups with year wise. This LCM model can also be shown in logarithm form as (). Moreover, Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) technique is also used to compute the mortality index and least squares estimate of LCM. It can lead to predict the life expectancy and mortality rates of the data used. All the resultant outcome of this research including life expectancy and forecast mortality rate has produced an auto regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. In addition, a comprehensive comparison is made among male and female mortality rate and their life expectancy periods. The computation and estimation of different parameters have been done by using R software. The mortality rates of male and female population have been predicted for next ten years. The current research will be helpful for devising different policies and planning related to population of Pakistan.