The Influence of Moon Phases on Financial Markets: A Statistical Investigation

Abstract

The influence of the moon on modern financial markets has been a topic of scholarly research. This study seeks to provide a rigorous and data-driven exploration of the influence of lunar phases on financial markets, with the potential to offer new perspectives and insights for both academia and industry. The research methodology entails systematically collecting and synchronizing historical financial market data with lunar phase information, categorizing lunar phases, conducting comparative analysis, hypothesis testing, and exploring potential mechanisms and psychological factors to evaluate the influence of lunar phases on various financial instruments and markets within a 10-year timeframe in the United States. The findings of the statistical investigation do not provide substantial evidence to support the hypothesis that lunar phases have a significant influence on financial markets. The mean returns, volatility, and correlations of financial instruments exhibited only minor variations across different lunar phases. Hypothesis testing results failed to establish statistical significance, and regression analysis showed limited predictive power of lunar phases while controlling for other variables. The analysis indicated minor fluctuations in psychological factors across lunar phases. Risk aversion appeared to be slightly lower during the full moon, while it increased during the waning phases. Cognitive biases, such as overconfidence or availability bias, varied slightly across lunar phases, with a slight decrease during the waning phases. In conclusion, this research contributes to our understanding of the multifaceted nature of financial markets and underscores the importance of data-driven and evidence-based analysis.